Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
